從未來預期看，2021年四季度至2022年一(yi)季度，中(zhong)經農(nong)業景氣指(zhi)數或將延續(xu)小幅回(hui)落(luo)，但農(nong)業經濟整體繼續(xu)保持穩中(zhong)提質的(de)向(xiang)好態勢。

景氣指數小幅回落

三(san)季度，農(nong)(nong)經(jing)景(jing)(jing)氣指數為102.1，剔(ti)除隨機因素后的農(nong)(nong)經(jing)景(jing)(jing)氣指數為101.8，惠農(nong)(nong)政策等外部因素對(dui)農(nong)(nong)業景(jing)(jing)氣繼續起到積極支撐作(zuo)用。

與上半年相比，前三季度農(nong)產(chan)(chan)品出口增速(su)(su)(su)小(xiao)幅(fu)上升(sheng)，農(nong)林(lin)水財政支出同比降幅(fu)持續(xu)收(shou)窄；農(nong)業生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)、農(nong)業投資、農(nong)民收(shou)入(ru)和(he)農(nong)業勞動生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)率(lv)增速(su)(su)(su)有所(suo)回落。從(cong)各指標兩(liang)年平均增速(su)(su)(su)來看，前三季度農(nong)業生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)、農(nong)業投資、農(nong)產(chan)(chan)品出口和(he)農(nong)業勞動生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)率(lv)增速(su)(su)(su)均比上半年有所(suo)加快；農(nong)林(lin)水財政支出增速(su)(su)(su)由(you)負轉正；農(nong)民收(shou)入(ru)增速(su)(su)(su)有所(suo)放緩(huan)。

三季度，農(nong)經(jing)(jing)預警指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)為(wei)93.3，比二季度回落3.4點，繼續在(zai)“綠(lv)燈區(qu)(qu)”運(yun)行(xing)。在(zai)構成農(nong)經(jing)(jing)預警指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)的(de)(de)10項(xiang)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)標中(zhong)，位于“黃燈區(qu)(qu)”的(de)(de)有(you)3項(xiang)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)標，分(fen)別(bie)(bie)為(wei)第(di)一產(chan)(chan)業(ye)增加值、谷物及(ji)其制(zhi)品進口額和豬料比；位于“綠(lv)燈區(qu)(qu)”的(de)(de)有(you)3項(xiang)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)標，分(fen)別(bie)(bie)為(wei)農(nong)村居民(min)人均經(jing)(jing)營(ying)凈收入、農(nong)產(chan)(chan)品出口額和農(nong)副食(shi)品加工業(ye)增加值；位于“淺藍(lan)燈區(qu)(qu)”的(de)(de)有(you)3項(xiang)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)標，分(fen)別(bie)(bie)為(wei)農(nong)林牧漁業(ye)固定資產(chan)(chan)投資完成額、農(nong)產(chan)(chan)品生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)者價格指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)和糧(liang)油食(shi)品零(ling)售額；位于“藍(lan)燈區(qu)(qu)”的(de)(de)有(you)1項(xiang)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)標，為(wei)農(nong)林水財(cai)政(zheng)支出。

與二季(ji)度相比，農產(chan)品出口額由“淺藍燈(deng)區”回升至(zhi)(zhi)“綠燈(deng)區”；農產(chan)品生(sheng)產(chan)者價格指數和(he)農林牧漁業固(gu)定(ding)資(zi)產(chan)投資(zi)完成額由“綠燈(deng)區”下(xia)降至(zhi)(zhi)“淺藍燈(deng)區”；其余7個指標未(wei)發(fa)生(sheng)變化。

農業(ye)經濟運行(xing)總(zong)體良好。前(qian)三季度，第(di)一產業(ye)增(zeng)加值為51430億元(yuan)，同比(bi)增(zeng)長7.4%，比(bi)上(shang)半(ban)年(nian)回落(luo)0.4個(ge)百分點；兩年(nian)平(ping)均(jun)增(zeng)長4.8%，兩年(nian)平(ping)均(jun)增(zeng)速(su)比(bi)上(shang)半(ban)年(nian)加快0.5個(ge)百分點。

全年糧食有望高位增產

全(quan)(quan)國(guo)夏糧(liang)量(liang)(liang)質并增(zeng)，產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)再(zai)創新高(gao)，同比增(zeng)長2.1%，實現總(zong)產(chan)(chan)(chan)、面積、單(dan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)“三項齊增(zeng)”，為全(quan)(quan)年(nian)糧(liang)食(shi)豐收(shou)奠定堅(jian)實基礎(chu)。秋(qiu)糧(liang)生產(chan)(chan)(chan)形勢總(zong)體較(jiao)好，播(bo)種面積穩(wen)中(zhong)有(you)(you)升(sheng)，全(quan)(quan)年(nian)糧(liang)食(shi)有(you)(you)望繼續(xu)(xu)(xu)獲(huo)得(de)好收(shou)成。從(cong)秋(qiu)糧(liang)播(bo)種面積看，各(ge)地持(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)加(jia)大糧(liang)食(shi)生產(chan)(chan)(chan)扶持(chi)(chi)力度，加(jia)之種糧(liang)比較(jiao)收(shou)益上升(sheng)等因素，農戶種糧(liang)意愿增(zeng)強，秋(qiu)糧(liang)播(bo)種面積呈擴大態勢；從(cong)單(dan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)看，今年(nian)農業氣候條(tiao)件總(zong)體有(you)(you)利秋(qiu)糧(liang)作物生長；從(cong)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)看，雖(sui)然局部暴雨和災情(qing)偏(pian)重，但全(quan)(quan)國(guo)秋(qiu)糧(liang)增(zeng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)已成定局，全(quan)(quan)年(nian)糧(liang)食(shi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)有(you)(you)望高(gao)位增(zeng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)，連續(xu)(xu)(xu)7年(nian)保持(chi)(chi)在1.3萬億斤以上。

畜牧業生產(chan)持(chi)續穩定增長(chang)。前三季度(du)，全國豬牛羊(yang)禽肉產(chan)量6428萬噸，增長(chang)22.4%。

其中，生(sheng)豬(zhu)產(chan)(chan)能加快釋放，生(sheng)豬(zhu)出(chu)(chu)欄(lan)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)大幅增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。前三季(ji)度，生(sheng)豬(zhu)出(chu)(chu)欄(lan)49193萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)35.9%，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)進一步加快1.5個百分點；豬(zhu)肉(rou)產(chan)(chan)量3917萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)38.0%。三季(ji)度末，生(sheng)豬(zhu)存欄(lan)43764萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)18.2%，比(bi)(bi)二(er)季(ji)度末略(lve)降(jiang)0.3%；其中，能繁殖母豬(zhu)存欄(lan)4459萬(wan)(wan)頭(tou)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)16.7%，比(bi)(bi)二(er)季(ji)度末下降(jiang)2.3%，相當于(yu)2017年(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)末水平。牛羊禽肉(rou)、牛奶(nai)產(chan)(chan)量增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加，禽蛋(dan)產(chan)(chan)量略(lve)有減(jian)少。前三季(ji)度，全國牛肉(rou)產(chan)(chan)量468萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)3.9%；羊肉(rou)產(chan)(chan)量341萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)5.3%；禽肉(rou)產(chan)(chan)量1702萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)3.8%；禽蛋(dan)產(chan)(chan)量2434萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)2.4%；牛奶(nai)產(chan)(chan)量2514萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)8.0%。

前三季度，農副(fu)食品(pin)加工業增加值同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)8.6%，比(bi)(bi)上半(ban)年回(hui)落2.1個百分點；兩年平(ping)均增長(chang)2.4%，兩年平(ping)均增速比(bi)(bi)上半(ban)年小(xiao)幅(fu)回(hui)落0.2個百分點。

農產品出口增速加快

前(qian)(qian)三季度，我(wo)國農產(chan)品(pin)(pin)出(chu)口額為594.9億美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)9.3%，比上(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)微升0.1個(ge)百(bai)分點(dian)；兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)平均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)3.1%，兩(liang)年(nian)(nian)平均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速比上(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)加快0.6個(ge)百(bai)分點(dian)。從主(zhu)要(yao)出(chu)口產(chan)品(pin)(pin)看(kan)，前(qian)(qian)三季度水產(chan)品(pin)(pin)出(chu)口151.9億美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)14.8%；蔬菜及(ji)食用菌出(chu)口86.7億美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)4.9%。

谷(gu)(gu)物(wu)進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)保持(chi)(chi)快速增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)。前三季度，我國(guo)谷(gu)(gu)物(wu)及其(qi)制品進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)額為(wei)(wei)167.5億美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)143.9%，增(zeng)(zeng)速雖比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上半年下降23.4個百分點，但已連續6個季度保持(chi)(chi)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)態(tai)勢。國(guo)內養殖業的加快恢(hui)復帶(dai)動以(yi)玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)為(wei)(wei)主(zhu)的飼(si)料用糧需求持(chi)(chi)續增(zeng)(zeng)加，相應(ying)的谷(gu)(gu)物(wu)進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)保持(chi)(chi)大(da)幅增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)態(tai)勢。其(qi)中，玉(yu)米(mi)(mi)進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)保持(chi)(chi)大(da)幅增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)，進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)為(wei)(wei)2493萬(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)274.5%，進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)額達69.4億美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)387.3%；大(da)麥進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)為(wei)(wei)861萬(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)85.5%，進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)額為(wei)(wei)24.1億美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)122.4%；小(xiao)麥進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)為(wei)(wei)759萬(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)25.3%，進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)額為(wei)(wei)23.4億美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)37.2%；高(gao)粱進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)為(wei)(wei)735萬(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)110.2%，進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)額為(wei)(wei)23.3億美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)182.5%；稻谷(gu)(gu)及大(da)米(mi)(mi)進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)為(wei)(wei)358萬(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)113.6%，進(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)額為(wei)(wei)16.3億美(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)85.7%。

農產品生產者價格由漲轉跌

三(san)季(ji)(ji)度(du)，全國農(nong)(nong)產(chan)品(pin)生產(chan)者(zhe)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)跌8.0%，受生豬價(jia)(jia)格(ge)持續下(xia)跌影響，農(nong)(nong)產(chan)品(pin)生產(chan)者(zhe)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)由一季(ji)(ji)度(du)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)上漲(zhang)7.8%、二季(ji)(ji)度(du)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)上漲(zhang)0.1%轉為同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)跌。

從(cong)農(nong)產品(pin)(pin)構成來看，三季(ji)度全國農(nong)產品(pin)(pin)生產者價(jia)格(ge)(ge)“三漲(zhang)一(yi)跌”。其中，農(nong)業產品(pin)(pin)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)上漲(zhang)6.5%，漲(zhang)幅比二(er)季(ji)度回(hui)落4.8個(ge)百(bai)分點(dian)；林業產品(pin)(pin)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)上漲(zhang)6.6%，漲(zhang)幅擴大1.9個(ge)百(bai)分點(dian)；漁(yu)業產品(pin)(pin)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)上漲(zhang)10.2%，漲(zhang)幅回(hui)落7.1個(ge)百(bai)分點(dian)；飼養動物及其產品(pin)(pin)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)下跌29.0%，跌幅擴大13.4個(ge)百(bai)分點(dian)。

分品種看，隨著生(sheng)豬產能的(de)加快釋放(fang)，三季度(du)(du)生(sheng)豬價(jia)格(ge)下跌(die)55.5%，跌(die)幅比(bi)二季度(du)(du)擴大(da)22.1個百分點(dian)；水(shui)果和蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)價(jia)格(ge)整體保(bao)持穩(wen)定，蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)價(jia)格(ge)下跌(die)1.8%，水(shui)果價(jia)格(ge)上(shang)漲4.8%。值得(de)注意的(de)是，受北方蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)產區(qu)多地持續降雨、低溫以及運輸(shu)成(cheng)本上(shang)升等因素影響，10月份以來全國蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)價(jia)格(ge)出(chu)現明顯(xian)上(shang)漲。從(cong)后市看，今年全國蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)種植面積穩(wen)中(zhong)有(you)(you)升，蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)供(gong)應(ying)整體有(you)(you)保(bao)障，隨著各地加大(da)保(bao)“菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)籃子”供(gong)應(ying)和蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)調配力(li)度(du)(du)，蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)供(gong)應(ying)偏緊(jin)的(de)狀況(kuang)將會得(de)到有(you)(you)效緩解。

從三大主(zhu)糧(liang)看，受生(sheng)豬(zhu)產(chan)能(neng)加(jia)快釋放(fang)、飼料(liao)用糧(liang)需(xu)求持續(xu)增加(jia)影(ying)響(xiang)，玉米價(jia)格(ge)繼續(xu)保(bao)持快速上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)，但(dan)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)有(you)所回落。三季度，玉米生(sheng)產(chan)者(zhe)價(jia)格(ge)上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)21.0%，漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)比二(er)季度回落11.8個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)；稻谷(gu)、小麥生(sheng)產(chan)者(zhe)價(jia)格(ge)分(fen)(fen)別上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)2.5%和8.5%，漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)比二(er)季度分(fen)(fen)別擴大1.7個(ge)和4.7個(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian)。

三季(ji)度，豬(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)料比為4.71：1，連續(xu)4個季(ji)度下降。生(sheng)豬(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)養殖虧損面(mian)有所擴大，農(nong)(nong)(nong)業農(nong)(nong)(nong)村部數(shu)據(ju)顯示，9月(yue)份全國養豬(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)場（戶）虧損面(mian)達76.7%。從生(sheng)豬(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)供給來看(kan)，生(sheng)豬(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)生(sheng)產(chan)在二季(ji)度恢復至正常年(nian)份水平后慣性增長，三季(ji)度市(shi)(shi)場供應(ying)(ying)出現(xian)階(jie)段性過(guo)剩。從后市(shi)(shi)看(kan)，近(jin)期新生(sheng)宰豬(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)數(shu)量(liang)仍呈增長態勢，短期內生(sheng)豬(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)供應(ying)(ying)仍將相對過(guo)剩。為防止(zhi)生(sheng)豬(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)生(sheng)產(chan)大起大落，盡量(liang)熨(yun)平“豬(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)周期”，穩定生(sheng)豬(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)生(sheng)產(chan)秩序，8月(yue)5日農(nong)(nong)(nong)業農(nong)(nong)(nong)村部等6部門印(yin)(yin)發(fa)《關(guan)于促進生(sheng)豬(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)產(chan)業持續(xu)健康發(fa)展(zhan)的意見》，9月(yue)23日農(nong)(nong)(nong)業農(nong)(nong)(nong)村部印(yin)(yin)發(fa)《生(sheng)豬(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)產(chan)能(neng)調控實(shi)施方案（暫行）》，加強生(sheng)豬(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)產(chan)能(neng)調減工作，保證長期的市(shi)(shi)場穩定供應(ying)(ying)。

城鄉居民收入差距繼續縮小

綜合(he)來(lai)看，三(san)季(ji)度農(nong)業(ye)(ye)經濟(ji)平(ping)穩運行，農(nong)業(ye)(ye)生產(chan)平(ping)穩增(zeng)長，農(nong)產(chan)品供給量足(zu)價穩，為(wei)促進國民經濟(ji)健康發(fa)展提(ti)供了有(you)力支撐。零售(shou)終端(duan)食品需(xu)求、務農(nong)收入、固定資產(chan)投資等指標較上半年(nian)有(you)所回落，但(dan)整體保持(chi)良好(hao)態勢。

前(qian)三季(ji)度，反映最終消費的糧油、食(shi)品零售額(e)為(wei)(wei)12086.7億元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增長(chang)10.3%，比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)小幅回(hui)(hui)落0.2個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分點，零售終端食(shi)品需求持續增加。前(qian)三季(ji)度，農村居民(min)人(ren)均經營(ying)凈收(shou)入(ru)為(wei)(wei)4042元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)名(ming)義增長(chang)6.7%，比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)回(hui)(hui)落3.8個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分點，農村居民(min)經營(ying)凈收(shou)入(ru)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增速的回(hui)(hui)落主(zhu)要受局(ju)部汛情(qing)和上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期基數抬(tai)升的影響(xiang)。農村居民(min)經營(ying)凈收(shou)入(ru)占(zhan)可(ke)支(zhi)配收(shou)入(ru)的比(bi)重為(wei)(wei)29.4%，比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)提高0.9個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分點。城鄉居民(min)人(ren)均可(ke)支(zhi)配收(shou)入(ru)之比(bi)為(wei)(wei)2.62，比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期縮小0.05，城鄉居民(min)收(shou)入(ru)相對差距繼續縮小。

前三季度，農林牧漁業(ye)(ye)固(gu)(gu)定資(zi)產(chan)投(tou)資(zi)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)增長12.9%，雖比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)半(ban)年回落7.0個(ge)百分(fen)點，但仍比(bi)(bi)(bi)全社(she)會固(gu)(gu)定資(zi)產(chan)投(tou)資(zi)增速高(gao)5.6個(ge)百分(fen)點。分(fen)行業(ye)(ye)看，畜(chu)牧業(ye)(ye)投(tou)資(zi)保持快速增長態勢，前三季度畜(chu)牧業(ye)(ye)固(gu)(gu)定資(zi)產(chan)投(tou)資(zi)額同比(bi)(bi)(bi)增長36.8%。

此(ci)外，前三季(ji)(ji)度，農林水財政(zheng)支出15204億元(yuan)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降4.5%，降幅比(bi)(bi)上(shang)半(ban)年收窄(zhai)3.6個百分點(dian)。從兩年平均(jun)(jun)來看，前三季(ji)(ji)度財政(zheng)支出同(tong)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)升2.5%，而(er)上(shang)半(ban)年為同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降0.4%。前三季(ji)(ji)度，第(di)一產業勞動(dong)生產率為人(ren)均(jun)(jun)27221.5元(yuan)（可比(bi)(bi)價），同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長12.5%，兩年平均(jun)(jun)增(zeng)長9.9%。

從(cong)未來預期(qi)看，全年(nian)糧食豐收基(ji)礎堅實，隨(sui)著(zhu)“菜籃子”保(bao)供穩(wen)價(jia)(jia)各項政策穩(wen)步落地，農(nong)產品(pin)價(jia)(jia)格有望保(bao)持(chi)穩(wen)定。隨(sui)著(zhu)農(nong)業(ye)(ye)農(nong)村現(xian)代(dai)化加(jia)快推進，農(nong)村內需潛(qian)力持(chi)續(xu)釋放，農(nong)業(ye)(ye)經(jing)(jing)濟將繼續(xu)保(bao)持(chi)穩(wen)中(zhong)提(ti)質(zhi)的向好態勢(shi)。結合模型預測，中(zhong)經(jing)(jing)農(nong)業(ye)(ye)景氣指(zhi)數(shu)或將延續(xu)小幅回(hui)落態勢(shi)，2021年(nian)四季度和(he)2022年(nian)一季度，中(zhong)經(jing)(jing)農(nong)業(ye)(ye)景氣指(zhi)數(shu)分別為101.9和(he)100.9。