按(an)照被(bei)調查棉(mian)農植棉(mian)面積(ji)加權(quan)平均計(ji)(ji)算，預(yu)計(ji)(ji)全國棉(mian)花(hua)總(zong)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)為(wei)550.42萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長11.5%，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)期預(yu)測(ce)減少4.07萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸；分區(qu)域看，新疆北部機采(cai)棉(mian)長勢(shi)(shi)基本正(zheng)(zheng)常，南(nan)疆拾花(hua)工(gong)短缺(que)，采(cai)摘緩(huan)慢，對產(chan)(chan)量(liang)造成了一(yi)定影(ying)響，預(yu)計(ji)(ji)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)為(wei)443.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長12.27%，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)期預(yu)測(ce)減少4萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸；內地中下旬天氣轉好(hao)，棉(mian)花(hua)長勢(shi)(shi)正(zheng)(zheng)常，預(yu)計(ji)(ji)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)約為(wei)100萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長7.7%，與上(shang)(shang)期預(yu)測(ce)持平。

截止(zhi)10月底，北疆棉(mian)花(hua)采(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)摘(zhai)(zhai)基本結束，南(nan)疆還(huan)在繼續(xu)采(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)摘(zhai)(zhai)，據中國棉(mian)花(hua)協會調查，新(xin)疆棉(mian)區(qu)采(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)摘(zhai)(zhai)進度(du)超過八成(cheng)，同(tong)比(bi)加(jia)(jia)(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)11.9個(ge)百(bai)分點，交售進度(du)為(wei)74.9%，同(tong)比(bi)加(jia)(jia)(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)13.4個(ge)百(bai)分點，農(nong)戶基本隨采(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)隨賣，沒(mei)有惜售現象。收購價格保(bao)持穩定，手(shou)摘(zhai)(zhai)棉(mian)價格為(wei)7-7.4元/公斤，機采(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)棉(mian)價格為(wei)6-6.4元/公斤，多數(shu)企(qi)業采(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)取邊銷售、邊加(jia)(jia)(jia)工的(de)策(ce)略，銷售價格約為(wei)16000—16500元/噸，扣除加(jia)(jia)(jia)工成(cheng)本1000元后，加(jia)(jia)(jia)工企(qi)業利潤微薄。分區(qu)域看(kan)，南(nan)疆以(yi)手(shou)摘(zhai)(zhai)棉(mian)為(wei)主，棉(mian)花(hua)吐絮(xu)較(jiao)早，采(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)收工作啟動(dong)早于北疆，但由于特殊形(xing)勢和地域限制，今年拾花(hua)人員短缺，采(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)摘(zhai)(zhai)進度(du)減緩。而北疆以(yi)機采(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)棉(mian)為(wei)主，隨著(zhu)機采(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)棉(mian)陸(lu)續(xu)開(kai)采(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)，采(cai)(cai)(cai)(cai)摘(zhai)(zhai)進度(du)加(jia)(jia)(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)。

長(chang)江流域中下旬天氣轉晴，適宜棉(mian)花裂鈴吐絮(xu)，采摘進度(du)加(jia)快(kuai)，截(jie)止到10月31日，棉(mian)花采摘進度(du)為(wei)71.04%，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)加(jia)快(kuai)1.3個百分點；因(yin)(yin)為(wei)天氣較(jiao)(jiao)好(hao)，棉(mian)花品質較(jiao)(jiao)前(qian)期有所提高，但(dan)因(yin)(yin)前(qian)期陰雨導致的大量(liang)爛(lan)桃棉(mian)，棉(mian)花整體質量(liang)不高，交(jiao)(jiao)售(shou)(shou)價格參差(cha)不齊，目前(qian)品質較(jiao)(jiao)好(hao)的棉(mian)花價格大多(duo)在(zai)6-6.6元/公斤，總(zong)體交(jiao)(jiao)售(shou)(shou)價格有所下降(jiang)。該(gai)流域棉(mian)農(nong)(nong)交(jiao)(jiao)售(shou)(shou)棉(mian)花的平均價格為(wei)5.93元/公斤，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)降(jiang)低10.70%。因(yin)(yin)為(wei)品質較(jiao)(jiao)差(cha)的棉(mian)花無法長(chang)期貯藏(zang)，棉(mian)農(nong)(nong)交(jiao)(jiao)售(shou)(shou)較(jiao)(jiao)快(kuai)；交(jiao)(jiao)售(shou)(shou)進度(du)為(wei)28.92%，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)加(jia)快(kuai)3.6個百分點。但(dan)品質較(jiao)(jiao)好(hao)的棉(mian)花交(jiao)(jiao)售(shou)(shou)量(liang)不大，棉(mian)農(nong)(nong)還在(zai)觀望(wang)。

黃河(he)流(liu)域天氣較(jiao)適宜棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)吐絮采摘(zhai)，采摘(zhai)進(jin)(jin)度明顯(xian)加快，截(jie)止到10月(yue)31日，棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)采摘(zhai)進(jin)(jin)度為92.19%，同(tong)比加快0.6個(ge)百分(fen)點。因為前(qian)期(qi)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)品質較(jiao)差價格較(jiao)低，后期(qi)質量轉好價格小幅(fu)上(shang)漲，但(dan)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)農惜售(shou)嚴重，交(jiao)售(shou)進(jin)(jin)度較(jiao)慢(man)，進(jin)(jin)度僅(jin)為18.8%，同(tong)比減慢(man)4.2個(ge)百分(fen)點。其中(zhong)，河(he)南省(sheng)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)無人(ren)收購，僅(jin)有少部分(fen)交(jiao)售(shou)用(yong)于絮棉(mian)(mian)(mian)，數量有限(xian)，該省(sheng)交(jiao)售(shou)進(jin)(jin)度僅(jin)過5%。該流(liu)域棉(mian)(mian)(mian)農交(jiao)售(shou)棉(mian)(mian)(mian)花(hua)(hua)的平均價格為6.65元/公斤，同(tong)比下降6.07%。